Shock new figures show if the current pace of growth is maintained, Brisbane will overtake Sydney as the most expensive capital to buy a home in Australia.
The scenario, provided by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO Antonia Mercorella, was based on the current pace of Brisbane holding at 9.7 per cent going forward and Sydney keeping to its 1.1 per cent.
Ms Mercorella said “not that long ago, it seemed unfathomable to many that Brisbane would overtake Melbourne in property prices, yet this has now occurred – we have become the second-most expensive city in Australia. So, the possibility of Brisbane property prices “pulling a Bradbury” over Sydney as well, remains to be seen.”
Sydney has been the quasi capital of Australia forever, with strong migrant inflows, but that shifted dramatically during the pandemic.
She said “if Brisbane were to continue growing at the current pace of 9.7pc annually and Sydney’s at 1.1pc, Brisbane could theoretically surpass Sydney’s median dwelling value by 2029.”
The figures worked off current median dwelling values of $894,000 and $1.19m for Brisbane and Sydney respectively, expecting that at the current pace, those would hit $1.3m in Brisbane compared to about $1.24m in Sydney in 2029.
REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said the projection depended on market factors like wage levels. Picture: Liam Kidston
But she added “it’s essential to note that this is based on a projection extrapolating current growth rates, not a forecast, and depends on a range of economic and market factors”.
Those key factors include average income levels, she said, something Sydney was well ahead on, showing a higher proportion of high-income earners given its dominant financial and professional services sectors.
“That said,” Ms Mercorella said, “it’s not implausible that along with the incredible demand we’re experiencing and expected population growth for Brisbane, the Olympics could lead to further catching up to Sydney’s prices.”
“Brisbane’s recent growth, particularly in the wake of Covid and the Olympics announcement, reflects an extraordinary, upward trajectory.”
Source: Realestate.com.au
